Declined March Cal-Culator Breaks Record Run

Declined March Cal-Culator Breaks Record Run

Posted on April 7, 2014 by admin

     

After a sensational winter for the Atlanta residential real estate industry, the market has ended its record streak of two months consecutively reaching 6.0 and has declined to a 5.7 in 2014’s first spring month. Declining new, pending and existing home sales combined with negative home price gains contributed to the weakened Cal-Culator this month.

 

The U.S. Department of Commerce released its U.S. Census Bureau News for February, which showed that sales of new single-family homes in February were 3.3 percent below January. Though new home sales are only a small portion of homes purchased in the U.S., the sales represents a lot more.

“They [new home sales] provide a more current gauge of market conditions than some other indicators because they are tallied at the moment a contract is signed rather than at its closing,” said The Wall Street Journal in ‘New-Home Sales Fell 3.3% in February.’
The article also found that existing home sales, 90 percent of all home purchases, fell for the second consecutive month.

Pending home sales also fell 0.8 percent in February, marking the eighth straight month of decline, according to Bloomberg data. Pending home sales can be used to predict future home sales’ activity, as most pending home sales become existing home sales in a few months.

The latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices indicated that a majority of the cities in the 20-City Composite saw declines in home prices gains, including Atlanta, which posted a 0.1 percent decline.
“The housing recovery may have taken a breather due to the cold weather,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Twelve cities reported declining prices in January vs. December; eight of those were worse than the month before.”

The National Association of Realtors’ 2014 Investment Home Buyers Survey conducted in March found that investment sales, a necessary part of the recovery, fell to 20 percent of all transactions in 2013, a drop of 8.5 percent.

“Investment buyers slowed their purchasing in 2013 because prices were rising quickly along with a declining availability of discounted foreclosures over the course of the year,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

Despite the setbacks, the month did have a few bright spots. Nation-wide inventory is continuing to rise and now is at a 5.2-month supply, up from a 4.7-monthly supply last month. Though month-over-month home price gains declined, Atlanta experienced a 16.8 percent year-over-year change in home prices.

“Expectations and recent data point to continued home price gains for 2014. Although most analysts do not expect the same rapid increases we saw law year, the consensus is for moderating gains,” said Blitzer.

The next Cal-Culator will be released May 13 and will hopefully follow normal spring strides in the housing industry.

www.southeastmortgage.com
770-279-0222

JD Crowe - Next President of Mortgage Bankers Association of Georgia

J.D. Crowe

On May 17, 2014 JD Crowe will be installed as the next President of the Mortgage Bankers Association of Georgia, a trade association dedicated to the preservation and improvement of the mortgage banking industry.

JD Crowe is currently the President of Southeast Mortgage of Georgia, Inc. responsible for Licensed Mortgage Loan Originator Sales and Secondary Marketing.

"Mortgage Bankers Association of Georgia elected the perfect choice for their next President.  JD brings a wealth of knowledge to his position drawn from his experience in the Broker Industry, Correspondent Industry, and now from a Direct Non-Bank Lender's perspective.  This broad scope of knowledge will add substantial value to the membership." Cal Haupt, Chief Executive Officer, Southeast Mortgage of Georgia, Inc.

www.southeastmortgage.com

770-279-0222

Do Mortgage Rates Matter?

I was scanning through LinkedIn this morning and a chart caught my eye.  It was a 200 year US 30 year Mortgage graph.

Over the years, I have seen some Mortgage Originators who watch rates like you would a stock in your portfolio.  I see blogs about what rates may be doing.  The only thing certain about mortgage rates is they will go up or down and they are a function of other variables.  For the consumer, mortgage rates do not matter in that they are relative to the economy.

 

When mortgage rates are high inflation is generally high along with home prices, wages, employment etc.  When mortgage rates are low inflation is generally low along with home prices, wages, employment etc.  The most recent recession was caused by an unsustainable product portfolios which required significant monetary policy inputs (QE1, QE2, QE3) to correct which created the artificial lows in mortgage rates we saw in the past year.

 

The one thing that is always true is markets are rational and always find an equilibrium.

 

Look at it this way.  Does a boat run differently in low tide vs. high tide? http://southeastmortgage.blogspot.com/2011/12/low-country-view-of-recessions-from.html

No it is the same.  Does a higher rate matter if the home you are buying is appreciating 7% a year or your families income is increasing 10% a year due to the great economy?  Rates do not matter in that they are relative to the surrounding economy and a rate lower than the market generally has a catch since mortgage rates are a commodity.  As you require your stock broker to be licensed, be sure your Mortgage Originator is licensed and not just registered.  http://southeastmortgage.blogspot.com/2013/09/what-consumers-must-know-about-mortgage.html

 

What is important to consumers is a home provides security for their family, a hedge against inflation, and potential tax benefits while providing an environment to create memories.  As an industry, we should focus on client need today and five years down the road.

 

Rates are a commodity and are a function of the economy.  The consumer is always getting a relatively good deal any day they lock given they economy is the tide in which their boat floats and their boat is always floating the same way in a high tide vs. a low tide.

 

Cal Haupt

Chief Executive Officer

Southeast Mortgage of Georgia, Inc.

www.southeastmortgage.com

Hibernian Society of Savannah 202nd Anniversary Dinner

In 1812 the Hibernian Society of Savannah was organized by forty-four prominent Savannah gentlemen for the purpose of tendering aid to needy Irish immigrants.

In 1813 the Hibernian Society held a private St. Patrick's Day celebration at Independent Presbyterian Church.

 

In 1824 James Hunter, President of the Hibernian Society, invited all local Irishmen to attend mass and then join in a parade through the streets of Savannah in honor of St. Patrick's Day. This was the birth of the St. Patrick's Day Parade in Savannah.

 

Dr. Jurgensen Center Current President

On St. Patrick's Day, 1874, members of the Hibernian Society awakened the whole City of Savannah by firing off an 18 gun salute with Revolutionary War cannons at 6:30 in the morning. We can't imagine why such a great tradition was apparently discontinued after only one year.

 

In 1908, by pure coincidence, Savannah's two oldest heritage societies, the St. Andrew's Society and the Hibernian Society, held separate meetings on the same night at the Hussars' Club. Afterwards the Scotsmen and the Irishmen gathered together for libations and toasts.

202nd Dinner Savannah, Georgia

 

In 1912 President William Howard Taft addressed the 100th Anniversary Dinner of the Hibernian Society of Savannah.

In 1937 President Franklin D. Roosevelt sent greetings to the Hibernian Society in a radio address from Warm Springs, Georgia.

In 1940 the cover of the Anniversary Dinner Program honored Tara Hall, the O'Hara Family home in Gone With the Wind, which had premiered the previous year.

In 1962 former President Harry Truman addressed the Society's 150th Anniversary Dinner.

In 1977 Archbishop Fulton J. Sheen was the featured speaker at the Society's Anniversary Dinner.

President Jimmy Carter addressed the Society's Anniversary Dinner in 1978.
 

2012 - Four-star Admiral William McRaven, commander of U.S. Special Forces, was the guest speaker for the 200th Anniversary of the Hibernian Society.  McRaven is credited for organizing and executing Operation Neptune's Spear, the special Ops raid that led to the death of Osama bin Laden on May 2, 2011.

 

www.southeastmortgage.com

Client Relationship Management has a new Crib.....

The CRM is moving into their new space at Club Drive.  The facility is designed to improve the delivery of the added value we provide our Licensed Mortgage Originators, Realtor / Real Estate Agents, and Builder groups.

JD Crowe on Atlanta Business Radio talks about the mortgage industry

http://atlantabusinessradio.businessradiox.com/2014/03/20/southeast-mortgage/

John David “J.D.” Crowe is the president of Southeast Mortgage of Georgia, Inc., a full- service Atlanta mortgage company. J.D. will also serve as president of the Mortgage Bankers Association of Georgia, assuming that position later this year. Crowe joined Southeast Mortgage as senior vice president in 2010.

Crowe is responsible for licensed mortgage originator sales while maintaining the company’s top service standards and capital markets operations. As president of Georgia’s largest non-bank lender, Crowe will continue to deliver exceptional mortgage services to Southeast Mortgage’s clients and referral partners.

www.southeastmortgage.com
770-279-0222

February Cal-Culator Remains Unchanged

Posted on March 10, 2014 by admin  

After an usually “hot” winter in Atlanta real estate, the Atlanta housing industry appears to have adjusted with outdoor temperatures and has cooled off ­– for now. Last month’s Cal-Culator hit a record 6.0, where it will stay for another month. Although sales of homes and home prices increased as did inventory, sluggish pending home sales and decreased home construction due to crippling winter weather were factors that kept the index the same.

 

The U.S. Department of Commerce  released its U.S. Census Bureau News for January, which showed that sales of new single-family homes rose 9.6 percent from December and 2.2 percent year-over-year.

Home prices increased by 12 percent year-over-year in January, marking the 23rd consecutive month of year-over-year home price gains, according to CoreLogic. Prices increased by 0.9 percent in January compared to December data.  “The last time January month-over-month and year-over-year price appreciation was this strong was at the height of the housing bubble in 2006,” said CoreLogic Chief Economist Dr. Mark Fleming.

Zillow’s January Real Estate Marketing Reports found the number of homes listed for sale on Zillow was up 11.1 percent nationwide from the year prior, making January the fifth straight month of rising year-over-year inventory. Atlanta experienced a 10.7 percent increase in inventory from the previous year in January.

The U.S. Department of Commerce also indicated that the housing crunch is slowly beginning to ease. The department found that the U.S. now holds a 4.7-month supply of homes, though a 6-month supply of homes is recommended.

Unfortunately, the housing industry is not exempt from external factors. Just as the industry was negatively affected by the government shutdown last fall, it has also suffered from recent extreme winter weather. Though home sales rose, pending home sales remained unchanged, according to the National Association of Realtors, partly due to the weather.

“Ongoing disruptive weather patterns in much of the U.S. inhibited home shopping,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. “Limited inventory is also playing a role … while credit remains tight and affordability isn’t as favorable as it was a year ago.”

U.S. home construction fell in January for the second consecutive month, down 16 percent from December, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. Construction had increased every month in 2013 before severe winter weather struck the nation beginning in December. Applications for building permits also fell in January by 5.4 percent, according to the report.

Even Zillow reported that mortgage rates had declined for the first time in four weeks, during the last week of February, to 4.11 percent due to global unrest.

“Rates drifted downwards last week as geopolitical concerns emerged from the turmoil in Ukraine,” said Erin Lantz, director of mortgages at Zillow.

The next Cal-Culator will be released April 8 and will hopefully chart positive growth in the industry without severe weather or global chaos inhibiting growth.