Showing posts with label Atlanta residential real estate index. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Atlanta residential real estate index. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 11, 2014

February Cal-Culator Remains Unchanged

February Cal-Culator Remains Unchanged


After an usually “hot” winter in Atlanta real estate, the Atlanta housing industry appears to have adjusted with outdoor temperatures and has cooled off ­– for now. Last month’s Cal-Culator hit a record 6.0, where it will stay for another month. Although sales of homes and home prices increased as did inventory, sluggish pending home sales and decreased home construction due to crippling winter weather were factors that kept the index the same.
The February Cal-Culator
 
The U.S. Department of Commerce  released its U.S. Census Bureau News for January, which showed that sales of new single-family homes rose 9.6 percent from December and 2.2 percent year-over-year.

Home prices increased by 12 percent year-over-year in January, marking the 23rd consecutive month of year-over-year home price gains, according to CoreLogic. Prices increased by 0.9 percent in January compared to December data.  “The last time January month-over-month and year-over-year price appreciation was this strong was at the height of the housing bubble in 2006,” said CoreLogic Chief Economist Dr. Mark Fleming.

Zillow’s January Real Estate Marketing Reports found the number of homes listed for sale on Zillow was up 11.1 percent nationwide from the year prior, making January the fifth straight month of rising year-over-year inventory. Atlanta experienced a 10.7 percent increase in inventory from the previous year in January.

The U.S. Department of Commerce also indicated that the housing crunch is slowly beginning to ease. The department found that the U.S. now holds a 4.7-month supply of homes, though a 6-month supply of homes is recommended.

Unfortunately, the housing industry is not exempt from external factors. Just as the industry was negatively affected by the government shutdown last fall, it has also suffered from recent extreme winter weather. Though home sales rose, pending home sales remained unchanged, according to the National Association of Realtors, partly due to the weather.

“Ongoing disruptive weather patterns in much of the U.S. inhibited home shopping,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. “Limited inventory is also playing a role … while credit remains tight and affordability isn’t as favorable as it was a year ago.”

U.S. home construction fell in January for the second consecutive month, down 16 percent from December, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. Construction had increased every month in 2013 before severe winter weather struck the nation beginning in December. Applications for building permits also fell in January by 5.4 percent, according to the report.

Even Zillow reported that mortgage rates had declined for the first time in four weeks, during the last week of February, to 4.11 percent due to global unrest.

“Rates drifted downwards last week as geopolitical concerns emerged from the turmoil in Ukraine,” said Erin Lantz, director of mortgages at Zillow.

The next Cal-Culator will be released April 8 and will hopefully chart positive growth in the industry without severe weather or global chaos inhibiting growth.

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

January Cal-Culator Starts New Year in Right Direction

January Cal-Culator Starts New Year in Right Direction


The December Cal-Culator’s outlook and promise for Atlanta’s residential real estate market in the new year seems to be ringing true. For the first time in The Cal-Culator’s history, the index has risen to 6.0 in part due to national and local rising home prices, increased home sales, a decrease in foreclosures and lowered interest rates, among other factors.
The January Cal-Culator
The January Cal-Culator

The Atlanta Board of Realtors reported home sales in the 11-county metro region experienced a 1.9 percent increase in December from the year prior.  National home sales of new and existing homes saw a 6.8 percent increase from the year earlier with the South having the strongest surge at 10.6 percent.

“We expect these statistics to begin rising as the warmer weather arrives, but this reversal of the downward trend established over the last several months is a welcome change,” said Atlanta Board of Realtors President Todd Emerson.

The latest data from CoreLogic found that metro Atlanta home prices rose 15.7 percent year-over-year in November­­. Home prices appreciated 13.3 percent overall in Georgia ­– the fifth highest in the nation.

“The market appears to be shrugging off rising interest rates, sluggishness in [national] employment growth and an uncertain economic environment,” said Steve Murray, editor of REAL Trends Housing Market Report.

However, some national month-to month numbers are moving in a negative direction, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index posted on Jan. 28. The national measure of home prices posted its first month-over-month decline, 0.1 percent, in 10 months.

“While housing will make further contributions to the economy in 2014, the pace of price gains is likely to slow during the year,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Foreclosures reached a decade-low in Atlanta in January, according to the Atlanta Board of Realtors. Metro Atlanta foreclosure notices were down 56 percent from January 2013, continuing the trend of decreased foreclosures since 2011. The decline has been attributed to the improving economy, including the lowered unemployment rate in Georgia. Decreased foreclosures, combined with historically low inventory of for-sale homes, increased new-home construction by 38 percent in 2013 as builders try to fill the void of the housing crunch.

“The market’s no longer getting weighed down by foreclosures,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac. “There’s a more normal, healthy pattern going forward.”
In December, the Federal Reserve announced it would buy $10 billion less in bonds per month in an effort to hold down long-term interest rates. The effects may already be reverberating throughout the industry. Though interest rates have risen a full percentage point since roughly a year ago, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac announced the average 30-year-loan fell to 4.32 percent during the last week of January, much to hopeful homebuyers’ delight.

The next Cal-Culator will be released March 11 and will hopefully reflect a positive month in Atlanta residential real estate.

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