Cal-Culator - How Did 2015 End for the Atlanta Housing Industry?

How Did 2015 End for the Atlanta Housing Industry?

 The Atlanta housing industry ended the year on a more sluggish note than expected. The

Cal-Culator, Atlanta’s residential real estate index, remained stagnant at 6.9 for October and November, then took a slight dip to 6.8 in December. Tight inventory, home sales and a variety of other housing indicators were factors in the end-of-year decline. Although inventory was tight and the index was relatively flat, we did see a consumer, builder and Realtor shift to licensed service oriented mortgage providers.

 

On December 16, the Federal Reserve increased the Federal funds rate ¼ point for the first time in nearly a decade since the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Based on historical data in Georgia, the start of a tightening policy by the Federal Reserve, signals strong future mortgage growth for a defined period.
While the index holds true for the macro Georgia mortgage market, Southeast Mortgage posted a 99.3 percent growth in December compared to same period 2014.

Tight Inventory
According to Zillow’s November Market Report, the number of homes on the market fell 1.7 percent in November and 7.6 percent from the year prior, marking 10 months of year-over-year inventory declines. However, on a positive note, Atlanta experienced one of the biggest year-over-year inventory increases in the nation ­– a respectable 17 percent.

Home Sales
For the third time in the last quarter of 2015, pending home sales slightly declined due to increasing home prices and inventory, according to the National Association of Realtors. However, pending home sales in the South increased slightly by 1.3 percent in November.

“Home prices rising too sharply in several markets, mixed signs of an economy losing momentum and waning supply levels have acted as headwinds in recent months despite low mortgage rates and solid job gains,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “While feedback from Realtors continues to suggest healthy levels of buyer interest, available listings that are move-in ready and in affordable price ranges remain hard to come by for many would-be buyers.”

RE/MAX’s National Report
RE/MAX’s December National Report, available for download here, revealed a number of stagnant factors about the housing industry:

• The average Days On Market for all homes sold was up three days, to 65 days, from RE/MAX’s national October average.
• The average number of home sales in 53 metro areas in November decreased 22.6 percent from October and was 1.4 percent lower than the previous year.
• The median sales price for all homes sold in November was down 5 percent from October, though this factor can help in housing affordability.

“Moderating prices help keep homeownership more affordable as we approach the end of a year that saw prices reach pre-recession levels in many markets. Even with anticipated rate hikes, mortgage rates are near historic lows, which also helps home affordability. Many home buyers find better availability and affordability in the winter months, before the traditional spring buying season starts,” said RE/MAX CEO Dave Linger.

Home Values           
Despite the dip, a bright spot at the end of last year was increased home values. Home values rose nationally 3.9 percent while many cities experienced double-digit growth, according to Zillow. Zillow also found the values of all U.S. homes grew $1.1 trillion, up 4.1 percent from 2014, though the year’s pace was slower than 2014.

The first Cal-Culator of 2016 will be released February 9, which will hopefully reveal a break in the sluggish performance.

http://leadership.saportareport.com/homemortgages/

www.southeastmortgage.com
770-279-0222
 

Pockets of Atlanta Real Estate Industry Remains Stagnant for February 2015

The shortest month of the year saw a mix of positive and negative factors in the Atlanta residential real estate market; however, being focused on pockets of the consumer segment can return a 60% growth year over year as experienced at Southeast Mortgage in February. 

The Cal-Culator, Atlanta’s leading residential real estate index, will hold steady at 6.3 for another month due to a continued decline in mortgage delinquency rates and a long awaited increase in inventory offset by declining home sales and investment in the Atlanta market.

The February Cal-Culator

Let’s Start With the Bad
Investors’ Dollars in Atlanta & Home Sales: The Atlanta Business Chronicle reported that home sales in metro Atlanta fell 37 percent from December 2014 to January 2015 and were also down 9.7 percent year over year. The decline was attributed to investors buying fewer homes in the area.
Substantial Decline in First-time Homebuyers: The National Association of Realtors also released data that nationwide, existing-home sales fell 4.9 percent ­to the lowest rate in nine months. First-time homebuyers, a vital demographic in the housing industry, declined to 28 percent, the lowest rate since June 2014. According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “January housing data can be volatile because of seasonal influences.”

Now for the Good News
Inventory: According to the latest data from the Atlanta Board of Realtors’ latest Market Brief, Atlanta housing inventory increased 13.6 percent year-over-year and by a staggering 54 percent from the previous month. Last year’s local real estate industry was tainted by the Atlanta housing crunch, which seems to be easing thus far in 2015.

Mortgages: For the 12th straight quarter, mortgage delinquency rates (defined as the rate of borrowers who are 60 days or more late on their mortgages) declined, according to TransUnion’s latest mortgage report. The vice president of research and consulting at TransUnion noted that the mortgage delinquency rate “continues to be well controlled as it slowly recedes to pre-recession levels.”

It’s no surprise that the short month combined with multiple threats of snow around Georgia didn’t propel the real estate market as far as hoped. However, housing experts are still extremely optimistic about the remainder of 2015 and are not overly concerned with this brief bout of sluggishness.
“Low interest rates, rising sale prices, economic expansion and balanced inventory support my expectation that the market will continue its strong and steady growth,” said Atlanta Board of Realtors President Ennis Antoine. “I believe the dynamic economic recovery we are seeing is going to have a major impact on the 2015 Atlanta housing market.”

The next Cal-Culator will be released March 7. Stay tuned to see if next month will reflect a positive come back after a month of stagnation.

www.southeastmortgage.com
770-279-0222

Final 2014 Cal-Culator

Atlanta Real Estate Celebrates Successful Year

Posted on December 8, 2014 by admin

     

With 2014 quickly coming to a close, a look back reveals we have a lot to celebrate.  The past year proved to be promising for the Atlanta real estate industry and the overall economy showing consistent traction toward recovery.  Since the beginning of 2014, the inventory crunch has eased, home prices have elevated, home sales increased, foreclosure levels continued to decline and rates remained historically low.

The November Cal-Culator

 

Despite an overall successful 2014, Atlanta’s real estate industry experienced a standard winter decline in the housing market with the Cal-Culator, Atlanta’s residential real estate index, dipping 0.1 to a 6.2.  Among the factors that contributed to the slight decline in the monthly index include a decline in pending home sales, decelerating home prices and a decline in developers’ sentiment.

Home Prices
The latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices reflected that though 2014 has been an overall good year for home prices compared to 2013, the last few months have demonstrated decelerating price growth. The National Index reported a month-over-month decrease in home prices for the first time since November 2013.
While the 20-City Composite, where Atlanta is featured, posted a 0.1 percent decline, Atlanta reported a deeper decrease of 0.3 percent in month-over month numbers. However, Atlanta posted a 4.5 percent increase in 1-year change, one of the highest growths in the Southeast.

Home Sales  
Recent home sales reports indicate improvement in the industry compared to 2013, however the reports also indicate more recent decline. Pending home sales, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, declined in October, according to the latest report by the National Association of Realtors. While pending home sales decreased 1.1 percent month-to-month, pending home sales rose 2.2 percent compared to October 2013. The NAR reported that tight credit and a lack of wage growth are contributing to the decline.  “Demand is holding steady but would be more robust if it weren’t for lagging wage growth and tight credit conditions that continue to hamper those individuals looking for relief from rising rents,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist.

Developers’ Sentiment
The National Association of Home Builders’ Multifamily Production Index released its third quarter numbers in November. The index reached 54 – four points below the previous quarter’s reading. However, despite the four-point drop, the score reveals that more builders and developers reported an improvement in the housing industry over those who reported worsening of the industry.
Though the Atlanta residential real estate index experienced a slight decline in December, we have plenty of reasons to celebrate a successful 2014 and anticipate a promising year ahead.  Stay tuned – the first Cal-Culator of 2015 will be released January 13.
 

www.southeastmortgage.com
770-279-0222

20% growth trend confirms recovery in June 2014

Over the past few years, we have written about the recovery in the Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market; however, we continued to see barriers from activities in Washington, Weather, etc.

Normally new record months are set in August.  2014 is different supported by record volume arriving early in June.  The Cal-Culator  http://southeastmortgage.blogspot.com/2014/06/may-2014-cal-culator-atlanta.html indicated this trend would occur.

With a 20% growth in June, I can say with certainty 2014 will be a great year for the Real Estate Industry.

The issue we see in recovery periods is a lack of planning.  Volume surges are only as good as the production channel to close the applications.  Production channels (Mortgage Application Processing Structures) take years to develop and require a significant investment by the company to design and deploy them.  Pipelines have to be converted to closings in order to maintain referral relationships and add value to Real Estate Professionals.  Realtors demand great service to grow their business and clients need fast dependable communication and service to reduce the inherent uncertainty in buying a home.

Mortgage Originators will need a solid production platform that adapts quickly to volume surges to convert their pipelines to closings and grow their business.  If service and closing certainty is faltering at this level of volume, it is not ready for the months ahead.  This recovery is what everyone in the mortgage industry has been waiting for so ensure you have the service and production capacity to fully participate in the record months ahead.

Cal Haupt
Chairman and CEO
Southeast Mortgage of Georgia, Inc.
www.southeastmortgage.com

May 2014 Cal-Culator - Atlanta Residential Real Estate Rebounds

Atlanta Residential Real Estate Rebounds

Posted on June 9, 2014 by admin

     

After months of sluggish behavior in the Atlanta residential real estate industry, May finally demonstrated significant housing recovery. After two months of a score of 5.7, the May Cal-Culator ranks a 6.0 due to improvements across the board in pending home sales, foreclosures and home price gains.

The May Cal-Culator

The leading measure of U.S. home prices, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, latest data showed that home prices in the 20-City Composite, which includes Atlanta, increased 0.9 percent month-over-month.

Foreclosure levels are a  positive trend that has been steady in 2014. According to CoreLogic’s most recent monthly report, foreclosures are down 0.4 percent month-over-month and down 18 percent from the previous year. The data also revealed April marked the 16th consecutive month of at least a 20 percent year-over-year decline in the inventory of foreclosed homes.
“We now have registered two and a half years of continuous decreases in the number of homeowners who are in some stage of the foreclosure process,” said Anana Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “This consistent decline means fewer Americans are experiencing the distress of delinquency and default. The recovery may be slow, but it is steady.”

RealtyTrac found in its April 2014 Residential & Foreclosure Sales Report that sales of U.S. residential properties, which include distressed and non-distressed sales of single-family homes, condominiums and townhomes, increased year-over-year by 4 percent. The report also found median sales prices of U.S. residential properties had the largest yearly increase since prices hit rock bottom in March 2012.

For the second straight month, the Pending Homes Sales Index improved, according to the National Association of Realtors. The forward-looking indicator, based on contract signings, increased 0.4 percent from the previous month. The report also indicated projected increases in home prices during the remainder of 2014.

“Higher inventory levels are giving buyers more choices, and a slight decline in mortgage interest rates this spring is raising prospective homebuyers’ confidence,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. “An uptrend in closed sales is expected, although some months will encounter a modest setback.”

Unfortunately, every month experiences some hiccups when it comes to real estate. The NAR’s Realtors Confidence Index, compiled from a survey of more than 3,000 Realtors, revealed a dip in confidence levels among Realtors about current market conditions.

“Tight credit conditions and the lack of inventory, particularly for ‘middle-priced’ homes were reported as the major roadblocks to increased sales,” said the report headed by Yun. “With a tight supply, properties were generally on the market for fewer days, and prices continued to increased in many areas although not as strongly as in 2012-2013.”

www.southeastmortgage.com

April Cal-Culator Reveals Continued Spring Setback

April Cal-Culator Reveals Continued Spring Setback

 After a strong winter in the real estate industry, the spring season continues to disappoint with sluggish market performance. Though the industry hit a record-breaking 6.0 twice earlier this year, the April Cal-Culator
lingered at a 5.7. Positive gains in underwater mortgages (home loans with a higher balance than the market value of the home) and foreclosures were offset by slow growth in existing-home sales and home prices.

The April Cal-Culator

Foreclosures
One of the bright spots of the month is CoreLogic’s latest National Foreclosure Report.  The report found that foreclosure rates (the 12-month sum of completed foreclosures) are back to November 2008 levels and foreclosure inventory is down 5.1 percent year-over-year.
“The inventory of homes in foreclosure and serious delinquency status are back to 2008 levels, yet remain elevated from a historic perspective,” said Dr. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “While getting healthier, the housing market is still a long way from being fully recovered.”
Unfortunately, Georgia was leading the nation with the fifth-highest number of completed foreclosures during the past 12 months – 33,000.
Home Prices
The most recent S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed little growth in home price gains for the majority of the 10-City and 20-City Composite, where Atlanta is included. Atlanta posted a -0.6 percent change, seasonally adjusted, month-over-month and -0.1 percent change year-over-year. David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said these “annual rates cooled the most we’ve seen in some time” and that the recovery in housing starts is “faltering.”
Home Sales
A report from the National Association of Realtors found that existing-home sales remained stagnant in March. Declining sales in the West and South offset gains in the Northeast and Midwest. Overall total existing-home sales slipped 0.2 percent.
“There should really be stronger levels of home sales given our population growth,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. “In contrast, price growth is rising faster than historical norms because of inventory shortages.”
However, pending home sales increased for the first time in nine months. The Pending Home Sales Index, a “forward-looking indicator,” rose 3.4 percent nationwide and 5.6 percent in the South in March.
“After a dismal winter, more buyers got an opportunity to look at homes last month and are beginning to make contract offers,” said Yun. “Sales activity is expected to steadily pick up as more inventory reaches the market, and from ongoing job creation in the economy.”
Underwater Properties
RealtyTrac’s U.S. Home Equity & Underwater Report for the first quarter of 2014 showed that 17 percent of all properties with a mortgage were seriously underwater, where the combined loan amount of the property is at least 25 percent higher than the property’s estimated value, the lowest level since RealtyTrac began tracking negative equity in 2012. Unfortunately, Georgia has the 10th-highest number of underwater mortgages in the nation.
“U.S. homeowners are continuing to recover equity lost during the Great Recession, but the pace of that recovering equity slowed in the first quarter, corresponding to slowing home price appreciation,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac.
The May Cal-Culator will be released June 10 and will hopefully represent resurgence in the housing industry.

Declined March Cal-Culator Breaks Record Run

Declined March Cal-Culator Breaks Record Run

Posted on April 7, 2014 by admin

     

After a sensational winter for the Atlanta residential real estate industry, the market has ended its record streak of two months consecutively reaching 6.0 and has declined to a 5.7 in 2014’s first spring month. Declining new, pending and existing home sales combined with negative home price gains contributed to the weakened Cal-Culator this month.

 

The U.S. Department of Commerce released its U.S. Census Bureau News for February, which showed that sales of new single-family homes in February were 3.3 percent below January. Though new home sales are only a small portion of homes purchased in the U.S., the sales represents a lot more.

“They [new home sales] provide a more current gauge of market conditions than some other indicators because they are tallied at the moment a contract is signed rather than at its closing,” said The Wall Street Journal in ‘New-Home Sales Fell 3.3% in February.’
The article also found that existing home sales, 90 percent of all home purchases, fell for the second consecutive month.

Pending home sales also fell 0.8 percent in February, marking the eighth straight month of decline, according to Bloomberg data. Pending home sales can be used to predict future home sales’ activity, as most pending home sales become existing home sales in a few months.

The latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices indicated that a majority of the cities in the 20-City Composite saw declines in home prices gains, including Atlanta, which posted a 0.1 percent decline.
“The housing recovery may have taken a breather due to the cold weather,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Twelve cities reported declining prices in January vs. December; eight of those were worse than the month before.”

The National Association of Realtors’ 2014 Investment Home Buyers Survey conducted in March found that investment sales, a necessary part of the recovery, fell to 20 percent of all transactions in 2013, a drop of 8.5 percent.

“Investment buyers slowed their purchasing in 2013 because prices were rising quickly along with a declining availability of discounted foreclosures over the course of the year,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

Despite the setbacks, the month did have a few bright spots. Nation-wide inventory is continuing to rise and now is at a 5.2-month supply, up from a 4.7-monthly supply last month. Though month-over-month home price gains declined, Atlanta experienced a 16.8 percent year-over-year change in home prices.

“Expectations and recent data point to continued home price gains for 2014. Although most analysts do not expect the same rapid increases we saw law year, the consensus is for moderating gains,” said Blitzer.

The next Cal-Culator will be released May 13 and will hopefully follow normal spring strides in the housing industry.

www.southeastmortgage.com
770-279-0222

The November Cal-Culator Offers a Bit of Relief for Atlanta Housing Industry

The annual winter slowdown in the residential real estate industry has officially struck Atlanta, but has had a lesser impact than past years. Last month, The Cal-Culator displayed the largest decline and the lowest number since its recent creation. The October Cal-Culator posted a 5.0, a 0.9-drop from the previous month due to the 16-day government shutdown and higher mortgage rates, among other factors.

The November Cal-Culator

The November Cal-Culator ranks a 5.1 due to a number of positive signs in mortgage rates and home prices, combined with multiple paralyzing housing industry factors such as home sales and home inventory.

After last month’s shattering drop, the latest National Association of Realtors’ quarterly report provided data that showed that the winter housing industry has been gaining steam from rising home prices. In the year’s third quarter, the median existing single-family home price increased in 88 percent of measured markets with 33 percent of areas reporting double-digit increases.

Unfortunately, the rise in home prices is a result of the housing crunch that is still plaguing many metropolitan areas, including Atlanta. Realtor.com’s Winter Home Buyer Report revealed that a quarter of winter buyers were still in the market because they were unable to find a home during the last home-buying season.

Though home prices rose, existing home sales fell for the second month in a row. The annual pace of existing home sales fell 3.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.12 million in October, down from 5.29 million in September, “Existing Home Sales Fall For 2nd Month In A Row In October, Prices Up As Inventory Stays Tight.”

“The erosion in buying power is dampening home sales,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist with the NAR. “Moreover, low inventory is holding back sales while at the same time pushing up home prices in most of the country. More new home construction is needed to help relieve the inventory pressure and moderate price gains.”

In more positive news, mortgage rates have been edging lower this winter after a summer of higher rates. The average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate loan continued to fall to 4.22 percent from the August high of 4.58 percent, according to mortgage buyer Freddie Mac. In comparison, the 30-year-loan averaged 3.34 percent in early 2013.

In November, Atlanta homeowners saw relief in underwater mortgages. The Atlanta Journal Constitution reported that fewer metro Atlanta homeowners owed more on their homes than the properties were worth. The third quarter posted 38 percent of metro homeowners were dealing with negative equity, compared to 44 percent in the second quarter.

Despite the improvements, metro Atlanta still ranks second in the nation among large metropolitan areas (behind Las Vegas) with the highest negative equity rates, reported the Atlanta newspaper. Housing recovery is strongest in Cobb, North Fulton, Cherokee, Forsyth and Gwinnett counties.
The next Cal-Culator will be released Jan. 7 and will hopefully start off 2014 in a positive direction.

The October Cal-Culator Reflects a Month of Housing Decline

The October Cal-Culator Reflects a Month of Housing Decline

Posted on November 11, 2013 by admin

After months of gaining steam toward recovery, the Atlanta residential real estate market has taken a bit of a plunge. The October Cal-Culator ranks a 5.0 after last month’s 5.9. A decrease in mortgage applications, decline in pending home sales, higher mortgage rates and the government shutdown all contributed to this month’s lowered Cal-Culator index.

The October Cal-Culator

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s latest data from September showed mortgage applications for new home sales decreased by 1 percent.  The National Association of Realtors reported its Pending Homes Sales index, based on contracts signed last month, sunk 5.6 percent, the largest decline since May 2010 and the lowest level since December 2012. Rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose to an average of 4.49 percent in September, almost a full percentage point higher from the 3.54 percent average in May, according to Freddie Mac.

The negative news can partially be attributed to how well the housing market was performing earlier in the year. In the first half of the year, the housing market was rebounding with pending home sale numbers the highest they had been in more than two years. Homebuilders took note and more than 72 percent of homebuilders raised their prices by June, many by double digits. Around the same time banks began raising interest rates. As a result, potential homebuyers are submitting far fewer offers, a sign that the hot real estate summer of 2012 is beginning to cool off.

“The problem is that people are just confused. Early last year the real estate market was starting to recover and homes were supposed to be a bargain“, according to an article in The Wall Street Journal, “Home Shoppers Kicking the Tires, But Delaying Deals.” “Then, as if overnight, you couldn’t find a home and boom-time relics like home-flipping and bidding wars were all of a sudden back.”
It’s no surprise that the 16-day government shutdown had a major, negative effect on the housing market. Hopeful homebuyers were unable to gain loan approval as the Internal Revenue Service, Social Security Administration, Federal Housing Administration and other governmental organizations were not in operation, thus unable to provide needed documentation. Mortgage lenders were unable to obtain IRS 4506T documents needed to close most borrowers’ loans. It is estimated that Washington set the real estate market back a minimum of six months.

Despite many factors contributing to a lowered Cal-Culator, there are a few positives from last month in the Atlanta residential real estate realm.  According to the National Association of Realtors, the majority of metropolitan areas, including Atlanta, are experiencing strong annual home price growth.  In the South, existing home sales prices are up 12.2 percent from the third quarter of 2012. Additionally, Atlanta has seen a huge rebound in the number of home listings, an increase of 14.4 percent compared to a year earlier. The increase in inventory is significantly helping ease Atlanta’s current housing crunch.

The next Cal-Culator will be released Dec. 10 and will hopefully reflect a more positive shift in Atlanta’s housing industry.

The September Cal-Culator Shows Continued Growth in the Atlanta Residential Real Estate Index

Posted on October 4, 2013 by admin  

September 2013 marks our second month of The Cal-Culator, Atlanta’s residential real estate index. Based on rising mortgage applications, declining foreclosure rates in Atlanta, the growth of the U.S. economy, amongst other factors, our Cal-Culator number this month is a 5.9. Comparatively, last month was a 5.1.

 

As stated in our inaugural column last month, The Cal-Culator number is based on housing trends, real estate-related indices and information from experts in the industry. We take into account such trends as mortgage rates, mortgage volume, inventory of available homes in Atlanta, the overall health of the Atlanta and U.S. economy, mortgage loan applications and more. We consult a number of professional publications and organizations such as Metrostudy, the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index, S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the Mortgage Bankers Association commentary.

The latest Metro Atlanta Case-Shiller Index, published on September 24, continued to show signs of improvement for Atlanta. Average home prices increased by 1.8 percent from last month and 12.4 percent over the past year. The Index also found listing inventory is up 24.8 percent from its lowest level in February 2013.

More September reports from Realtytrac showed remarkable progress for the foreclosure rate in the Atlanta market. Atlanta saw the fewest U.S. homes sought for foreclosures by lenders in nearly eight years. It is the first month since November 2009 that Georgia did not land in the top 10 states with the highest number of foreclosures. In August, 55,775 homes entered the foreclosure process, an 8 percent drop from the previous month and a 44 percent drop from August 2012.

On September 30, the Mortgage Bankers Association released their commercial and multifamily quarterly data book. Their findings revealed that the U.S. economy grew at a seasonally adjusted rate of 2.5 percent in the second quarter, compared to 1.1 percent growth in the first quarter. They also found that commercial and multifamily mortgage originations grew while delinquency rates for commercial and multifamily mortgages loans declined. Mortgage applications increased within September by 5.5 percent, according to their reports.

The National Association of Home Builders reported sales of newly built, single-family homes rose 15.3 percent in the South in August and 7.9 percent nationwide. The gain helped offset a dip in July that was caused by higher interest rates. The resales marked a 6 1/2 year high as buyers flocked back to the market to take advantage of lower borrowing costs.

August also posted numbers that demonstrated ease on the housing crunch that has struck Atlanta especially hard. According to the National Association of Realtors, more buyers are beginning to put their home on the market thanks in part to rising home prices. Existing home sales increased 1.7 percent to a 5.48 million annual rate in August.

The next Cal-Culator will be released November 11. Here’s to hoping for a continual rise in the Atlanta residential real estate market.

Note from Cal Haupt, CEO, Southeast Mortgage of Georgia, Inc. :
With the deadlock in Washington, the government created a significant issue out of a small lesser-known component of the mortgage process.  Due to the recent financial crisis, IRS 4506T transcript verifications are required on almost all files prior to closing a mortgage loan in the US.  As a result of the government shutdown, the IRS is not processing 4506T requests. The real estate lending industry contributed to the 2009 recession and if the government does not address this overlooked component of the shutdown, the constraint on lending will severely impact the recovery process of home builders, real estate professionals, and mortgage lenders.

www.southeastmortgage.com
770-279-0222

Rob Chrisman Report - "Cal-Culator Report"

http://www.robchrisman.com/category/daily-mortgage-news/

Atlanta has a new metric for measuring the health of the Atlanta residential real estate market, thanks in part to Georgia’s largest non-bank mortgage lender Southeast Mortgage. The “Cal-Culator report” will be distributed to media outlets prior to being published on Southeast Mortgage’s Thought Leadership blog on SaportaReport.com, Atlanta’s authoritative civic website. The monthly Cal-Culator number rating will be based on a variety of factors including mortgage rate trends, single-family housing starts, the inventory of Atlanta homes, consumer confidence and the Atlanta economy. Staff will be consulting numerous sources, such as the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, Atlanta’s On Numbers Economic Index, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index and more. The Cal-Culator for August 2013 can be viewed here:
http://saportareport.com/leadership/homemortgages/2013/09/09/introducing-the-cal-culator-atlanta-residential-mortgage-index/.

www.southeastmortgage.com
770-279-0222
clientservices@southeastmortgage.com

Introducing The Cal-Culator: Atlanta Residential Mortgage Index

Introducing The Cal-Culator: Atlanta Residential Mortgage Index

Posted on September 9, 2013 by admin SaportaReport

Welcome to the Cal-Culator! Each month we’ll post our Cal-Culator number after considering a variety of factors that include information about home buying, mortgages and building activity in metro Atlanta, as well as the national economy.
This month our Cal-Culator number is 5.1. For comparison’s sake, in July 2007 when Atlanta home prices were at their peak, the Cal-Culator would have been a 9. About 18 months ago in March 2012, the Cal-Culator would have been a 1.5.  That’s the month that BusinessInsider.com among others wrote that Atlanta has the worst housing market in the country.

Thankfully, many factors have improved considerably, with trends pointing in a positive direction and the Atlanta housing market continuing to gain momentum.

To determine the Cal-Culator number we take a look at the following:
• The national average of mortgage rates
• Mortgage rates trends
• Mortgage volume
• Mortgage volume trends
• Single-family housing starts
• The inventory of available homes in Atlanta
• The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
• The overall health of the economy in Atlanta, and in the U.S.
• Consumer confidence

The national average for mortgage rates is on the rise, with the average for a 30-year at 4.58 percent last week. Rates have risen a full point since May.

For the trends in mortgage rates, we look at the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index. Each week experts in the mortgage industry and Bankrate analysts predict where mortgage rates are headed. For the week of August 22, 50 percent of the panel predicted they would go up in the following week; 17 percent predicted they would go down; 33 percent predicted they would remain unchanged.

Each month economists at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) release commentary on the current economic climate and insights on how trends affect mortgage markets. The most recent commentary shows predictions of a volume of $606 billion in the second half of the year, up from the $527 billion it forecast at the beginning of 2013, but down from $976 billion during the first half.
Another factor we consider for the Cal-Culator is the volume of mortgage loan applications. For that information, we use the Market Composite Index from the MBA’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the mortgage loan application volume decreased 4.6 percent from one week earlier, as reported on August 21.

To determine single-family housing starts and inventory we gather data from Metrostudy, a provider of primary and secondary market information to housing and related industries. Atlanta showed an encouraging turnaround in the second quarter of 2013, with construction doubling in some counties over the same period in 2012. Metrostudy economist Eugene James said, “The second-quarter of ’13 starts are up 77 percent from a year ago. That’s a big number.

Inventory remains low, with properties for sale through MLS at a 3.6-month supply. The median sales price for new homes rose in the second quarter, to $271,500 from $259,900 a year earlier.
The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices is the leading measure of U.S. home prices and Atlanta is one of the markets it specifically addresses. Home prices continue to strengthen and Atlanta showed a monthly gain in May (the latest figures available) of 3.4 percent, the first time it has gone over 3 percent.

The overall health of the economy is important for the Cal-Culator and for that information we look at figures from the Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Last week the LEI showed an increase of 0.6 percent to 96. (2004 = 100) “The improvement in the LEI, and pick up in the six-month growth rate, suggest better economic and job growth in the second half of 2013,” said Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board.

For information about Atlanta, we use the On Numbers Economic Index from The Business Journals, publisher of The Atlanta Business Chronicle. This index measures the relative vitality of 102 major metropolitan areas with populations of more than 500,000, and Atlanta came in 65 out of 102. “Recent employment numbers suggest metro Atlanta’s job growth is sustaining momentum,” wrote Douglas Sams, Commercial Real Estate Editor for the Atlanta Business Chronicle. In June metro Atlanta added 10,000 jobs.

For information on consumer confidence, a critical component in the recovery of the housing market, we turn to the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® that releases a monthly Consumer Confidence Survey® based on information gathered by Nielsen. The Conference Board reports that confidence fell slightly in June but is still well above levels a year ago. “Overall, indications are that the economy is strengthening and may even gain some momentum in the months ahead,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.

We hope you find The Cal-Culator helpful as an indication of the health of the Atlanta residential real estate market. Let’s hope the news continues to trend in a positive way.

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