The shortest month of the year saw a mix of positive and negative factors in the Atlanta residential real estate market; however, being focused on pockets of the consumer segment can return a 60% growth year over year as experienced at Southeast Mortgage in February.

The Cal-Culator, Atlanta’s leading residential real estate index, will hold steady at 6.3 for another month due to a continued decline in mortgage delinquency rates and a long awaited increase in inventory offset by declining home sales and investment in the Atlanta market.

The February Cal-Culator

Let’s Start With the Bad
Investors’ Dollars in Atlanta & Home Sales: The Atlanta Business Chronicle reported that home sales in metro Atlanta fell 37 percent from December 2014 to January 2015 and were also down 9.7 percent year over year. The decline was attributed to investors buying fewer homes in the area.
Substantial Decline in First-time Homebuyers: The National Association of Realtors also released data that nationwide, existing-home sales fell 4.9 percent to the lowest rate in nine months. First-time homebuyers, a vital demographic in the housing industry, declined to 28 percent, the lowest rate since June 2014. According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “January housing data can be volatile because of seasonal influences.”

Now for the Good News
Inventory: According to the latest data from the Atlanta Board of Realtors’ latest Market Brief, Atlanta housing inventory increased 13.6 percent year-over-year and by a staggering 54 percent from the previous month. Last year’s local real estate industry was tainted by the Atlanta housing crunch, which seems to be easing thus far in 2015.

Mortgages: For the 12th straight quarter, mortgage delinquency rates (defined as the rate of borrowers who are 60 days or more late on their mortgages) declined, according to TransUnion’s latest mortgage report. The vice president of research and consulting at TransUnion noted that the mortgage delinquency rate “continues to be well controlled as it slowly recedes to pre-recession levels.”

It’s no surprise that the short month combined with multiple threats of snow around Georgia didn’t propel the real estate market as far as hoped. However, housing experts are still extremely optimistic about the remainder of 2015 and are not overly concerned with this brief bout of sluggishness.
“Low interest rates, rising sale prices, economic expansion and balanced inventory support my expectation that the market will continue its strong and steady growth,” said Atlanta Board of Realtors President Ennis Antoine. “I believe the dynamic economic recovery we are seeing is going to have a major impact on the 2015 Atlanta housing market.”

The next Cal-Culator will be released March 7. Stay tuned to see if next month will reflect a positive come back after a month of stagnation.

www.southeastmortgage.com
770-279-0222

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

January Cal-Culator Starts New Year in Right Direction

Posted on February 10, 2014 by admin

The December Cal-Culator’s outlook and promise for Atlanta’s residential real estate market in the new year seems to be ringing true. For the first time in The Cal-Culator’s history, the index has risen to 6.0 in part due to national and local rising home prices, increased home sales, a decrease in foreclosures and lowered interest rates, among other factors.

The January Cal-Culator

The Atlanta Board of Realtors reported home sales in the 11-county metro region experienced a 1.9 percent increase in December from the year prior. National home sales of new and existing homes saw a 6.8 percent increase from the year earlier with the South having the strongest surge at 10.6 percent.

“We expect these statistics to begin rising as the warmer weather arrives, but this reversal of the downward trend established over the last several months is a welcome change,” said Atlanta Board of Realtors President Todd Emerson.

The latest data from CoreLogic found that metro Atlanta home prices rose 15.7 percent year-over-year in November. Home prices appreciated 13.3 percent overall in Georgia – the fifth highest in the nation.

“The market appears to be shrugging off rising interest rates, sluggishness in [national] employment growth and an uncertain economic environment,” said Steve Murray, editor of REAL Trends Housing Market Report.

However, some national month-to month numbers are moving in a negative direction, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index posted on Jan. 28. The national measure of home prices posted its first month-over-month decline, 0.1 percent, in 10 months.

“While housing will make further contributions to the economy in 2014, the pace of price gains is likely to slow during the year,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Foreclosures reached a decade-low in Atlanta in January, according to the Atlanta Board of Realtors. Metro Atlanta foreclosure notices were down 56 percent from January 2013, continuing the trend of decreased foreclosures since 2011. The decline has been attributed to the improving economy, including the lowered unemployment rate in Georgia. Decreased foreclosures, combined with historically low inventory of for-sale homes, increased new-home construction by 38 percent in 2013 as builders try to fill the void of the housing crunch.

“The market’s no longer getting weighed down by foreclosures,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac. “There’s a more normal, healthy pattern going forward.”
In December, the Federal Reserve announced it would buy $10 billion less in bonds per month in an effort to hold down long-term interest rates. The effects may already be reverberating throughout the industry. Though interest rates have risen a full percentage point since roughly a year ago, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac announced the average 30-year-loan fell to 4.32 percent during the last week of January, much to hopeful homebuyers’ delight.

The next Cal-Culator will be released March 11 and will hopefully reflect a positive month in Atlanta residential real estate.

www.southeastmortgage.com
770-279-0222
http://saportareport.com/leadership/homemortgages/