The Cal-Culator Turns One !

We’re excited to share that it has been one year since Atlanta was introduced to The Cal-Culator, Atlanta’s first residential real estate index. The inaugural index was 5.1 when we began last summer. For comparison’s sake, in July 2007 when Atlanta home prices were at their peak, the Cal-Culator would have been a 9. Approximately 18 months ago in March 2012, the Cal-Culator would have been a 1.5. Now, the Cal-Culator stands at a very respectful 6.3, a 0.1-increase from last month. Increased inventory, increased new single-family homes and continued declining foreclosures contributed to the slight increase in the index.

 

Home Sales
Since August, sales of newly built, single-family homes have been at the highest level in six years. Sales of new single-family homes in August rose 18 percent nationally from July and 33 percent above 2013 levels, according to the latest data released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development on September 24. The South posted a 7.8 percent change month-to-month and a 27.2 percent increase from 2013.

“This robust level of new-home sales activity is a good sign that the housing recovery is moving towards higher ground,” said National Association of Home Builders Chief Economist David Crowe. “Historically low mortgage rates, attractive home prices and firming job and economic growth should keep the housing market moving forward in 2014.”

The data also reflected a slight increase in inventory, which now stands at a 4.8-month supply.
Unfortunately, after four consecutive months of gains, existing-home sales fell 1.8 percent nationally and 4.2 percent in the South in August, according to The National Association of Realtors.

“There was a marked decline in all-cash sales from investors,” said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. “On the positive side, first-time buyers have a better chance of purchasing a home now that bidding wars are receding and supply constraints have significantly eased in many parts of the country.”

Foreclosures
CoreLogic’s latest report on foreclosures revealed a 22.2 percent decline in foreclosure   nationally year-over year, though Georgia is still fifth on the list of states with the highest number of foreclosures. The 12-month sum of completed foreclosures is at its lowest point in nearly seven years.
Though August marked the 34th month of consecutive foreclosure decline, economists still have significant concerns about the current state of homeownership.

“Clearly there has been a large improvement in the market the last few years, but five years into the economic expansion the foreclosure inventory remains at nearly three times the normal level,” said Sam Khater, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic.

Home Prices
Though home price gains have eased, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indicies showed that the 20-City Composite (where Atlanta is included) had a small increase of 0.5 percent month-over-month, according to data released September 30. Atlanta also posted a 0.5 percent month-over-month increase and a 6.7 percent 1-year change.

Join us next month on November 11 for the October Cal-Culator as we hope to continue into the index’s second year with positive gains in the housing industry.

www.southeastmortgage.com

June 2014 - Cal-Culator - Real Estate Index Hits Record High

Atlanta Residential Real Estate Index Hits Record High With Across the Board Housing Improvements

Amid the summer heat, real estate in Atlanta is sizzling. Last month, the Cal-Culator, Atlanta’s residential real estate index, reached the previous record of 6.0. This month, the June index has climbed to a record high of 6.2 due to across the board improvements in home sales, builder confidence, home prices, increased inventory, foreclosures and more.

The June Cal-Culator

Home Sales
Pending, new and existing home sales all   saw  strong improvements in May. Existing-home sales rose 4.9 percent, with attributions to rising inventory levels, the improving job market and declining mortgage rates. Pending home sales rose “sharply” 6.1 percent, the largest increase since April 2010 when first-time homebuyers scrambled to sign contracts before a lucrative popular tax credit ended, according to the National Association of Realtors.

New-home sales posted an even stronger rebound with a nearly 19 percent increase from last month, the highest rate since May 2008, according to data released by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development with the U.S. Census Bureau.  “These numbers are in line with our recent builder surveys, which indicate that more consumers are getting off the fence and coming back into the marketplace,” said Kevin Kelly, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders.

Home prices
RealtyTrac reported that the median sales price of distressed and non-distressed U.S. residential properties rose 6 percent in May from the previous month and 13 percent from a year ago, the second consecutive month in a row with a double-digit annual increase and the biggest annual increase since prices bottomed out in March 2012.

Builder Confidence
New data from the NAHB and Wells Fargo Housing Market Index showed that builder confidence for new single-family homes rose to only one point shy of the threshold of what’s considered good building conditions. The index rose four points to a level of 49. Any number over 50 indicates the majority of homebuilders view conditions as “good” rather than “poor.”  “After several months of little fluctuation, a four-point uptick in builder sentiment is a welcome sign and shows some renewed confidence in the industry,” said Kelly.

Foreclosures
Foreclosure levels in Atlanta have continued the downward trend that has permeated the real estate industry in 2014. Foreclosures in June dropped to levels not seen since 2002. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported on data from Kennesaw’s Equity Depot that 2,054 foreclosures were reported in June across 13 Atlanta counties, compared to 11,016 during the height of the housing crisis.  The Northeast and West aren’t faring as well, however, as foreclosure levels skyrocketed in May, according to Housing Wire. 

Stay tuned as we release the next Cal-Culator on August 5 to see if Atlanta’s residential real estate numbers continue on their current path of rebound.

www.southeastmortgage.com
770-279-0222

April Cal-Culator Reveals Continued Spring Setback

April Cal-Culator Reveals Continued Spring Setback

 After a strong winter in the real estate industry, the spring season continues to disappoint with sluggish market performance. Though the industry hit a record-breaking 6.0 twice earlier this year, the April Cal-Culator
lingered at a 5.7. Positive gains in underwater mortgages (home loans with a higher balance than the market value of the home) and foreclosures were offset by slow growth in existing-home sales and home prices.

The April Cal-Culator

Foreclosures
One of the bright spots of the month is CoreLogic’s latest National Foreclosure Report.  The report found that foreclosure rates (the 12-month sum of completed foreclosures) are back to November 2008 levels and foreclosure inventory is down 5.1 percent year-over-year.
“The inventory of homes in foreclosure and serious delinquency status are back to 2008 levels, yet remain elevated from a historic perspective,” said Dr. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “While getting healthier, the housing market is still a long way from being fully recovered.”
Unfortunately, Georgia was leading the nation with the fifth-highest number of completed foreclosures during the past 12 months – 33,000.
Home Prices
The most recent S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed little growth in home price gains for the majority of the 10-City and 20-City Composite, where Atlanta is included. Atlanta posted a -0.6 percent change, seasonally adjusted, month-over-month and -0.1 percent change year-over-year. David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said these “annual rates cooled the most we’ve seen in some time” and that the recovery in housing starts is “faltering.”
Home Sales
A report from the National Association of Realtors found that existing-home sales remained stagnant in March. Declining sales in the West and South offset gains in the Northeast and Midwest. Overall total existing-home sales slipped 0.2 percent.
“There should really be stronger levels of home sales given our population growth,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. “In contrast, price growth is rising faster than historical norms because of inventory shortages.”
However, pending home sales increased for the first time in nine months. The Pending Home Sales Index, a “forward-looking indicator,” rose 3.4 percent nationwide and 5.6 percent in the South in March.
“After a dismal winter, more buyers got an opportunity to look at homes last month and are beginning to make contract offers,” said Yun. “Sales activity is expected to steadily pick up as more inventory reaches the market, and from ongoing job creation in the economy.”
Underwater Properties
RealtyTrac’s U.S. Home Equity & Underwater Report for the first quarter of 2014 showed that 17 percent of all properties with a mortgage were seriously underwater, where the combined loan amount of the property is at least 25 percent higher than the property’s estimated value, the lowest level since RealtyTrac began tracking negative equity in 2012. Unfortunately, Georgia has the 10th-highest number of underwater mortgages in the nation.
“U.S. homeowners are continuing to recover equity lost during the Great Recession, but the pace of that recovering equity slowed in the first quarter, corresponding to slowing home price appreciation,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac.
The May Cal-Culator will be released June 10 and will hopefully represent resurgence in the housing industry.

January Cal-Culator Starts New Year in Right Direction

January Cal-Culator Starts New Year in Right Direction

Posted on February 10, 2014 by admin

The December Cal-Culator’s outlook and promise for Atlanta’s residential real estate market in the new year seems to be ringing true. For the first time in The Cal-Culator’s history, the index has risen to 6.0 in part due to national and local rising home prices, increased home sales, a decrease in foreclosures and lowered interest rates, among other factors.

The January Cal-Culator

The Atlanta Board of Realtors reported home sales in the 11-county metro region experienced a 1.9 percent increase in December from the year prior.  National home sales of new and existing homes saw a 6.8 percent increase from the year earlier with the South having the strongest surge at 10.6 percent.

“We expect these statistics to begin rising as the warmer weather arrives, but this reversal of the downward trend established over the last several months is a welcome change,” said Atlanta Board of Realtors President Todd Emerson.

The latest data from CoreLogic found that metro Atlanta home prices rose 15.7 percent year-over-year in November­­. Home prices appreciated 13.3 percent overall in Georgia ­– the fifth highest in the nation.

“The market appears to be shrugging off rising interest rates, sluggishness in [national] employment growth and an uncertain economic environment,” said Steve Murray, editor of REAL Trends Housing Market Report.

However, some national month-to month numbers are moving in a negative direction, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index posted on Jan. 28. The national measure of home prices posted its first month-over-month decline, 0.1 percent, in 10 months.

“While housing will make further contributions to the economy in 2014, the pace of price gains is likely to slow during the year,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Foreclosures reached a decade-low in Atlanta in January, according to the Atlanta Board of Realtors. Metro Atlanta foreclosure notices were down 56 percent from January 2013, continuing the trend of decreased foreclosures since 2011. The decline has been attributed to the improving economy, including the lowered unemployment rate in Georgia. Decreased foreclosures, combined with historically low inventory of for-sale homes, increased new-home construction by 38 percent in 2013 as builders try to fill the void of the housing crunch.

“The market’s no longer getting weighed down by foreclosures,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac. “There’s a more normal, healthy pattern going forward.”
In December, the Federal Reserve announced it would buy $10 billion less in bonds per month in an effort to hold down long-term interest rates. The effects may already be reverberating throughout the industry. Though interest rates have risen a full percentage point since roughly a year ago, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac announced the average 30-year-loan fell to 4.32 percent during the last week of January, much to hopeful homebuyers’ delight.

The next Cal-Culator will be released March 11 and will hopefully reflect a positive month in Atlanta residential real estate.

www.southeastmortgage.com
770-279-0222
http://saportareport.com/leadership/homemortgages/ 

Strong December Cal-Culator Shows Promise for 2014

Strong December Cal-Culator Shows Promise for 2014

After a bitterly cold winter in Atlanta, both in temperature and in the housing industry, things are beginning to thaw. Last month, The Cal-Culator rose 0.1 to a 5.1, from October’s record low of 5.0. The December Cal-Culator jumps to a 5.5 and closes 2013 on a positive note.  Rising home prices, fewer distressed sales, increased inventory and rising number of home sales all contribute to Atlanta’s road to recovery into the New Year.

The December Cal-Culator

One of the defining characteristics of the Atlanta residential real estate market in 2013 was the housing inventory crunch. Luckily, the past few months have offered relief for hopeful homebuyers locally and nationally. The December Case-Shiller Index reported that listing inventory in Atlanta was up 21.4 percent from February 2012. The inventory of national homes for sale in November was up 5 percent from the previous year, the first year-over-year gain in inventory since early 2011, according to The Wall Street Journal.

“We saw an extended period of low inventory late last year and early in 2013. But the recent trend is rising and we appear headed for a more normal level of inventory for next spring,” reported Atlanta Real Estate Scoop. “Buyer activity remains strong led by baby boomers and first-time buyers.”

Home prices, an indicator of a strong housing industry, steadily increased in the last quarter of 2013. A Clear Capital Home Data Index Market Report indicated that national home prices rose from 10.9 percent from 2012 while Atlanta saw home prices rise 13.6 percent over the past year, as reported in the latest Case-Shiller Index.

The rise can partially be attributed to buyers holding out to sell their homes for more than their appraisal value and fewer foreclosures on the market, according to Atlanta INtown, “Market Watch: A real estate forecast for 2014.”  As home prices are rising, so are new home sales data.  The Commerce Department’s new-home sales reports for November reported that sales were up nearly 17 percent from November 2012, making it of the strongest months of new home sales since 2008. However, overall sales decreased ­­– but for a good reason!

“While existing and pending home sales have slipped in recent months, distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – account for much of the drop,” said Jed Kolko, chief economist for Trulia. “The mix of sales continues to shift from distressed to non-distressed, which is a sign of market recovery.”

Construction starts for homes are also seeing double-digit gains. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that November saw a 20.8 percent increase, amounting to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 727,000, for single-family homes from October.

Economists believe that these trends will likely carry over into the New Year as buyers are continuing to take advantage of historically low mortgage rates and home prices. Check back for the next Cal-Culator on Feb. 11 to see how 2014 is faring.

The September Cal-Culator Shows Continued Growth in the Atlanta Residential Real Estate Index

Posted on October 4, 2013 by admin  

September 2013 marks our second month of The Cal-Culator, Atlanta’s residential real estate index. Based on rising mortgage applications, declining foreclosure rates in Atlanta, the growth of the U.S. economy, amongst other factors, our Cal-Culator number this month is a 5.9. Comparatively, last month was a 5.1.

 

As stated in our inaugural column last month, The Cal-Culator number is based on housing trends, real estate-related indices and information from experts in the industry. We take into account such trends as mortgage rates, mortgage volume, inventory of available homes in Atlanta, the overall health of the Atlanta and U.S. economy, mortgage loan applications and more. We consult a number of professional publications and organizations such as Metrostudy, the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index, S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the Mortgage Bankers Association commentary.

The latest Metro Atlanta Case-Shiller Index, published on September 24, continued to show signs of improvement for Atlanta. Average home prices increased by 1.8 percent from last month and 12.4 percent over the past year. The Index also found listing inventory is up 24.8 percent from its lowest level in February 2013.

More September reports from Realtytrac showed remarkable progress for the foreclosure rate in the Atlanta market. Atlanta saw the fewest U.S. homes sought for foreclosures by lenders in nearly eight years. It is the first month since November 2009 that Georgia did not land in the top 10 states with the highest number of foreclosures. In August, 55,775 homes entered the foreclosure process, an 8 percent drop from the previous month and a 44 percent drop from August 2012.

On September 30, the Mortgage Bankers Association released their commercial and multifamily quarterly data book. Their findings revealed that the U.S. economy grew at a seasonally adjusted rate of 2.5 percent in the second quarter, compared to 1.1 percent growth in the first quarter. They also found that commercial and multifamily mortgage originations grew while delinquency rates for commercial and multifamily mortgages loans declined. Mortgage applications increased within September by 5.5 percent, according to their reports.

The National Association of Home Builders reported sales of newly built, single-family homes rose 15.3 percent in the South in August and 7.9 percent nationwide. The gain helped offset a dip in July that was caused by higher interest rates. The resales marked a 6 1/2 year high as buyers flocked back to the market to take advantage of lower borrowing costs.

August also posted numbers that demonstrated ease on the housing crunch that has struck Atlanta especially hard. According to the National Association of Realtors, more buyers are beginning to put their home on the market thanks in part to rising home prices. Existing home sales increased 1.7 percent to a 5.48 million annual rate in August.

The next Cal-Culator will be released November 11. Here’s to hoping for a continual rise in the Atlanta residential real estate market.

Note from Cal Haupt, CEO, Southeast Mortgage of Georgia, Inc. :
With the deadlock in Washington, the government created a significant issue out of a small lesser-known component of the mortgage process.  Due to the recent financial crisis, IRS 4506T transcript verifications are required on almost all files prior to closing a mortgage loan in the US.  As a result of the government shutdown, the IRS is not processing 4506T requests. The real estate lending industry contributed to the 2009 recession and if the government does not address this overlooked component of the shutdown, the constraint on lending will severely impact the recovery process of home builders, real estate professionals, and mortgage lenders.

www.southeastmortgage.com
770-279-0222