The Cal-Culator Turns One !

We’re excited to share that it has been one year since Atlanta was introduced to The Cal-Culator, Atlanta’s first residential real estate index. The inaugural index was 5.1 when we began last summer. For comparison’s sake, in July 2007 when Atlanta home prices were at their peak, the Cal-Culator would have been a 9. Approximately 18 months ago in March 2012, the Cal-Culator would have been a 1.5. Now, the Cal-Culator stands at a very respectful 6.3, a 0.1-increase from last month. Increased inventory, increased new single-family homes and continued declining foreclosures contributed to the slight increase in the index.

 

Home Sales
Since August, sales of newly built, single-family homes have been at the highest level in six years. Sales of new single-family homes in August rose 18 percent nationally from July and 33 percent above 2013 levels, according to the latest data released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development on September 24. The South posted a 7.8 percent change month-to-month and a 27.2 percent increase from 2013.

“This robust level of new-home sales activity is a good sign that the housing recovery is moving towards higher ground,” said National Association of Home Builders Chief Economist David Crowe. “Historically low mortgage rates, attractive home prices and firming job and economic growth should keep the housing market moving forward in 2014.”

The data also reflected a slight increase in inventory, which now stands at a 4.8-month supply.
Unfortunately, after four consecutive months of gains, existing-home sales fell 1.8 percent nationally and 4.2 percent in the South in August, according to The National Association of Realtors.

“There was a marked decline in all-cash sales from investors,” said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. “On the positive side, first-time buyers have a better chance of purchasing a home now that bidding wars are receding and supply constraints have significantly eased in many parts of the country.”

Foreclosures
CoreLogic’s latest report on foreclosures revealed a 22.2 percent decline in foreclosure   nationally year-over year, though Georgia is still fifth on the list of states with the highest number of foreclosures. The 12-month sum of completed foreclosures is at its lowest point in nearly seven years.
Though August marked the 34th month of consecutive foreclosure decline, economists still have significant concerns about the current state of homeownership.

“Clearly there has been a large improvement in the market the last few years, but five years into the economic expansion the foreclosure inventory remains at nearly three times the normal level,” said Sam Khater, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic.

Home Prices
Though home price gains have eased, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indicies showed that the 20-City Composite (where Atlanta is included) had a small increase of 0.5 percent month-over-month, according to data released September 30. Atlanta also posted a 0.5 percent month-over-month increase and a 6.7 percent 1-year change.

Join us next month on November 11 for the October Cal-Culator as we hope to continue into the index’s second year with positive gains in the housing industry.

www.southeastmortgage.com

Strong December Cal-Culator Shows Promise for 2014

Strong December Cal-Culator Shows Promise for 2014

After a bitterly cold winter in Atlanta, both in temperature and in the housing industry, things are beginning to thaw. Last month, The Cal-Culator rose 0.1 to a 5.1, from October’s record low of 5.0. The December Cal-Culator jumps to a 5.5 and closes 2013 on a positive note.  Rising home prices, fewer distressed sales, increased inventory and rising number of home sales all contribute to Atlanta’s road to recovery into the New Year.

The December Cal-Culator

One of the defining characteristics of the Atlanta residential real estate market in 2013 was the housing inventory crunch. Luckily, the past few months have offered relief for hopeful homebuyers locally and nationally. The December Case-Shiller Index reported that listing inventory in Atlanta was up 21.4 percent from February 2012. The inventory of national homes for sale in November was up 5 percent from the previous year, the first year-over-year gain in inventory since early 2011, according to The Wall Street Journal.

“We saw an extended period of low inventory late last year and early in 2013. But the recent trend is rising and we appear headed for a more normal level of inventory for next spring,” reported Atlanta Real Estate Scoop. “Buyer activity remains strong led by baby boomers and first-time buyers.”

Home prices, an indicator of a strong housing industry, steadily increased in the last quarter of 2013. A Clear Capital Home Data Index Market Report indicated that national home prices rose from 10.9 percent from 2012 while Atlanta saw home prices rise 13.6 percent over the past year, as reported in the latest Case-Shiller Index.

The rise can partially be attributed to buyers holding out to sell their homes for more than their appraisal value and fewer foreclosures on the market, according to Atlanta INtown, “Market Watch: A real estate forecast for 2014.”  As home prices are rising, so are new home sales data.  The Commerce Department’s new-home sales reports for November reported that sales were up nearly 17 percent from November 2012, making it of the strongest months of new home sales since 2008. However, overall sales decreased ­­– but for a good reason!

“While existing and pending home sales have slipped in recent months, distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – account for much of the drop,” said Jed Kolko, chief economist for Trulia. “The mix of sales continues to shift from distressed to non-distressed, which is a sign of market recovery.”

Construction starts for homes are also seeing double-digit gains. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that November saw a 20.8 percent increase, amounting to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 727,000, for single-family homes from October.

Economists believe that these trends will likely carry over into the New Year as buyers are continuing to take advantage of historically low mortgage rates and home prices. Check back for the next Cal-Culator on Feb. 11 to see how 2014 is faring.